Favouring the powerful: the heterogeneous trade effect of the classical gold standard.

Much of the literature documents a positive trade effect from adherence to the classical gold standard, yet it typically assumes a uniform impact across trading partners and products. In this paper, we reexamine this assumption with product-level import data for Argentina over the period 1875-1913. Using a gravity-based approach, we show that bilateral adherence to the gold standard is associated with a substantial increase in trade flows. However, our results reveal significant heterogeneity: the trade effect is notably stronger for trading partners with higher import shares and for products in capital-intensive industries, suggesting that the benefits of reduced currency volatility are amplified where financing and structured payment systems are critical. Moreover, we find that tariffs play an important moderating role, further influencing the magnitude of the gold standard trade effect. Overall, our findings underscore that while the gold standard broadly facilitated increased international trade by stabilising exchange rates, its impact varied considerably across countries, products, and tariff regimes.


Wilfried Kisling is a researcher in economic and social history, focusing on trade finance, monetary regimes, and the economic history of globalization. His research explores the intersection of historical financial systems and their impact on international trade. He has published on global banking, financial crises, and international trade development. He currently holds a position as Assistant Professor at the WU University Vienna, and is Associated Researcher at the Faculty of History at the University of Oxford.